The Russia-Ukraine War started as a “special military operation” on the 24th of February 2022. It has evolved with no end in sight and the possibility of turning into a protracted conflict with significant geopolitical implications. This commentary aims to dwell on the potential trajectory of the conflict, specifically focusing on the possibility of it devolving into a War of Attrition akin to the notable historical wars of attrition by looking at its characteristics. Additionally, the commentary will explore the significant similarities and differences between the Russia-Ukraine war with the other wars of attrition, assess its potential outcomes, evaluate the challenges and impacts of this war on Russia and Ukraine, and view the possibility of halting further escalation.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for the past one and a half years. There is no indication that the war will end soon. On the contrary, the current Russia-Ukraine war shows many characteristics of a War of Attrition, portraying distinct features that set it apart from other forms of warfare. There are many historical examples of wars of attrition. Notably, in World War I, the war is characterised by its extensive trench warfare on the Western Front whereby the protracted nature of the conflict led to enormous human and material losses, with both sides lodged in a battle of attrition. Another significant historical example is the conflict on the Eastern Front during World War II which eventually ended with a combination of military exhaustion and socio-political factors.  Also, during the Iran-Iraq War (1980 – 1988) both sides engaged in trench warfare, extensive use of chemical weapons, and sustained high casualties which finally ended in a stalemate. The next historical example, the Soviet-Afghan war (1979 -1989) became a protracted conflict marked by guerrilla warfare tactics used by Afghan resistance forces (Mujahideen) and the war eventually ended with the withdrawal of Soviet forces. Another illustration is the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) in which the government's military campaign and the LTTE's guerilla tactics led to a prolonged conflict with considerable human costs. Also, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict which is not a conventional war but the protracted nature of conflict with occasional periods of intense violence has resulted in a continuous state of hostility and attrition. Last but not least, the Syrian Civil War (2011 - Present) has evolved into a complex and multifaceted war of attrition involving several states and non-state actors. The prolonged nature of the conflict has led to enormous human suffering and destruction. Thus, akin to previous protracted wars and conflicts, the valuable historical context can provide an understanding of how the current Russia-Ukraine war could develop into a War of Attrition.

 There are similarities and differences between the current Russia-Ukraine War as compared to the other wars of attrition. Among the similarities are the prolonged engagement in a War of Attrition where there is no clear resolution, the employment of guerrilla warfare tactics by non-state actors and the psychological and logistical challenges occupied forces face. Where else, among the differences is the geopolitical context which differs significantly between them. A case in point when comparing the current Russia-Ukraine War with the U.S. in the Vietnam War, Russia is pursuing regional influence while the U.S. was seeking to contain the spread of communism then. Another difference is the level of international involvement. In the Russia-Ukraine War, the involvement of other nation-states is more pronounced, with various actors providing support to both sides. Another pertinent difference is ideological motivations. Using the same comparison between the Russia-Ukraine War and the U.S. during the Vietnam War, the Russia-Ukraine War stems from historical, ethnic, and political factors while the Vietnam War was rooted in the Cold War.

Understanding the characteristics of a War of Attrition is crucial for assessing whether the Russia-Ukraine war will end up as one. The first characteristic of a War of Attrition is marked by its prolonged duration, often months or years with no immediate resolution. The current Russia-Ukraine war fits well into this characteristic as the war started on 24th February 2022 and this war is likely to drag on as Ukraine has just received the Abram Tanks from the U.S. which are expected to be used in Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces (Jakes 2023, September 25). Next, a War of Attrition is typically characterised by high casualty rates on both sides by a steady and continuous attrition of manpower and resources. Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has had a disastrous impact on civilian life whereby thousands of civilians have been killed and injured, as well as civilian property and infrastructure have been destroyed (Human Rights Watch, 2023).  Another characteristic of a War of Attrition is that it often features static or semi-static front lines which may be concentrated in specific regions or areas of strategic importance, unlike wars with fluid front lines or rapidly shifting battlegrounds. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the static or semi-static frontlines are the contended areas of operation involving the Russian-held areas of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kherson.

In a War of Attrition, the combatants often engage in repetitive and predictable tactics involving regular artillery barrages, trench warfare, and limited offensives as it is difficult to achieve significant territorial gains. Referring to this characteristic, the Russia-Ukraine war saw many repetitive and predictable tactics in the many battles fought in Mariupol, Kyiv and the prolonged battles for the stronghold of Bakhmut. Additionally, both Russia and Ukraine sides face a significant drain on their military, economic, and logistical resources that requires a continuous supply of troops, weapons, and provisions to sustain the conflict, which can strain their nation’s capacity over time. A War of Attrition drains the resources of the warring nations. The Russia-Ukraine War is currently facing the prospect of a protracted nature of their conflict which can escalate and lead to significant psychological strain on soldiers and civilians alike, eroding morale and leading to combat fatigue. Reuters in its report said the cost of military mobilisation by Russia and the impact of Western sanctions are set to disrupt the government's budget forecasts and drain its reserves to their lowest level in years. It was also reported that Russia will face an ever-greater strain on its resources as President Vladimir Putin pursues to fund a conflict with no end in sight and prepares for a possible re-election bid in 2024 (Korsunskaya, 2022, November 2). Similarly, Ukraine is also facing a resource drain which was aptly depicted by the statement made by Josep Borrell, the European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Policy who lamented during a press conference at the European Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM) Training Mission Centre that European military reserves are "depleted" due to the war in Ukraine following the invasion by Russia. He called for larger investment in the EU's military industry to face future challenges following the needs of the conflict on Ukrainian territory (Atalayar. 2022, December 12). All these indications are seen in the current war between Russia and Ukraine reflecting a possibility of it escalating into a War of Attrition.

There are other indications seen in the current development of the Russia-Ukraine war that match the characteristics of a War of Attrition. For example, both Russia and Ukraine have limited strategic objectives with the focus on wearing down their opponent's will to continue fighting and not aiming at achieving decisive territorial gains or regime changes. Nevertheless, although characterised by a slow and grinding nature, there were moments of intensity or periods of escalation, particularly when one side saw a strategic advantage could be gained. This situation is seen currently in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Also typical of a War of Attrition, both nations have sought external support and intervention such as neighbouring countries or international powers which may provide support to one or both sides. Russia is lobbying for support from China and most recently from North Korea during the visit by the North Korean President, Kim Jong Un. It was reported that North Korea would arm Russia in exchange for a military technology boost (Seoul wary as North Korea seeks to arm Russia in exchange for military technology, 2023, September 29). Likewise, Ukraine has the support of the NATO countries, the United States of America, Canada and other supporting countries.  Witnessed in both Russia and Ukraine, these supports are in various forms, including military assistance, financial aid, or diplomatic backing.

Relating to theories of International Relations and Strategic Studies, it can be surmised that the Russia-Ukraine War has the potential outcomes of a War of Attrition including the possibility of ending up in a stalemate and continued low-intensity conflict, potentially leading to de facto partition. It could also end up in an escalation, potentially drawing in more regional and global actors, with unforeseen consequences. Though attempted by mediators but not yet successful, there is still a possibility of diplomatic resolution through international mediation and negotiations, even though this option faces significant challenges. There is also a proxy war potential. The Russia-Ukraine War exhibits elements of a proxy conflict, with various external actors providing support to both sides. However, it does not fit the traditional mould of a proxy war, as Russia's direct military involvement and Ukraine's status as a sovereign state complicate the categorisation.

The War of Attrition between Russia and Ukraine imposes challenges and impacts on both nation-states. For Russia, it put a strain on military resources and personnel over the long term. With the economic sanctions and isolation imposed on Russia, the War of Attrition potentially exacerbates its existing domestic challenges. It will also further erode its international credibility and reputation. For Ukraine, the War of Attrition will further increase civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ukraine will continue to face economic hardships and the potential for political instability. As observed, Ukraine has to resort to dependence on international support for sustenance.

It is pertinent to note that every War of Attrition has unique dynamics, motivations, and geopolitical considerations that contribute to their respective outcomes. In the case of Ukraine, it is a war for its survival as pointed out by Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, who says Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom against Moscow's 'imperial delusions' during his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy on 28th September 2023 (NATO, n.d.). Thus, in a War of Attrition, it is crucial to assess the nature of a given conflict and formulate appropriate strategies for resolution, peace-building, and humanitarian intervention. To prevent further escalation, a multi-faceted approach is suggested. First, there must be engagement in sustained diplomatic efforts involving key stakeholders, including Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, and the U.S. Next, they should seek a negotiated settlement that addresses the core grievances of both parties.  While combat continues, diplomatic efforts may be ongoing to seek a negotiated settlement. However, reaching a resolution can be challenging due to the entrenched positions of the parties involved. Also, an effort must be made to establish international monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance and build trust. Finally, attempts must be made to address humanitarian concerns and provide reconstruction assistance to affected areas in Ukraine and Russia.

In conclusion, while the potential for a War of Attrition in the Russia-Ukraine War exists, it is crucial to recognise the unique dynamics of this conflict. A diplomatic resolution, supported by sustained international efforts, remains the most viable path forward to prevent further escalation and mitigate the long-term impacts on both Russia and Ukraine as well as other countries in the world.

Reference:

Atalayar. (2022, December 12). Ukraine war drains EU military resources. Atalayar. https://www.atalayar.com/en/articulo/politics/ukraine-war-drains-eu-military-            resources/20221212122346159375.html

Human Rights Watch. (2023). Russia-Ukraine War | Human Rights Watch. Www.hrw.org. https://www.hrw.org/tag/russia-ukraine-war 

Jakes, L. (2023, September 25). First Abrams Tanks Arrive in Ukraine, Zelensky Says. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/world/europe/us-abrams-tanks-ukraine.html#:~:text=The%20first%20American%2bDmade%20Abrams

Korsunskaya, D. (2022, November 2). Ukraine conflict, sanctions set to blow hole in Russia’s finances. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-conflict-sanctions-set-blow-hole-russias-finances-2022-11-02/

NATO. (n.d.). Joint press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. NATO. Retrieved October 7, 2023, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_218845.htm?selectedLocale=en

Seoul wary as North Korea seeks to arm Russia in exchange for military technology. (2023, September 29). South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-  asia/politics/article/3236122/seoul-wary-north-korea-seeks-arm-russia-exchange-military-tech-secrets

Major General Dato’ Dr Kwong Fook Wen (R) is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, National Defence University of Malaysia.