Japan Has Massive Sea Power BA Hamzah

Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan is set to reclaim its past glory as a sea power. Since taking over the premiership in 2006, he has modernised the Navy -Japan Maritime Self Defence Force- and transformed the maritime industries. Both tangible assets are important in understanding sea power concept. Equally important are non-tangible assets like skill, education, science, culture, leadership, etc. Variables like legacy, geo-politics and geography have independent influence on Japanese current quest for sea power.

The sea power of a state goes beyond the strength of its naval forces. It includes other tangible and non-tangible assets that a state uses to assert influence at sea to promote its national interests: political, military and commercial. Until they are converted for sea power purposes, raw maritime assets are less critical in understanding the sea power concept.

It is possible to evaluate the sea power of a nation.

Today, we measure the sea power of a state by giving value to the maritime assets in the form of “finished products” plus counting the number of missiles, bombs and hulls in the Navy. However, the value of the assets at sea in their raw form is not a good measure of strength. The attributes of sea power include, among others, the ability of the state to harness science and technology to convert the raw maritime assets into qualitative sea power “products”.

A strong industrial base and a supportive political leadership are also crucial determinants of sea power capabilities. Likewise, the capacity of the state to make effective use of the maritime assets worldwide (e.g., ports, shipping lines) can be used as a barometer for measuring sea-power.

Japan is fortunate. It has a supportive Prime Minister and a skilful industrial base-especially the manufacturing sector- that could expedite Tokyo’s quest for a stronger sea power. Moreover, the uncertainties in the current geo-political landscape have made it easier to appeal for citizen support.

Manufacturing has been the most remarkable and internationally renowned feature of Japan's economic growth. Following Abe-san’s decision to lift the ban on military exports, two prominent pre –war defence manufacturing companies-the Kawasaki Heavy Industries and the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries- are back in the business of exporting military hardware. It will be a matter of time before Japan enters the lucrative global arms market in the near future. India, Thailand and New Zealand have reportedly expressed interest in Japanese patrol boats for their respective Navies.

In 2016, Tokyo lost the bid to supply submarines to Australia. 

Although it is a fraction of its Imperial Navy, the JMSF is second to none in the Asia Pacific region. It is better equipped than the combined Navies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. In terms of firepower (minus nuclear weapons), the JMSDF is at par with the Royal Navy. By most estimates, it can punch above its weight and could probably match the Chinese PLA Navy in a limited conflict scenario at sea, for example in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu region.

As of 2016, the JMSDF has a total of 155 vessels, 4 versatile helicopter carriers, 26 destroyers, 10 frigates, 6 corvettes, 19 attack submarines (3 more in the pipeline), 30 mine countermeasure vessels, 6 patrol vessels, 3 landing ship tanks, 8 training vessels and a fleet of various auxiliary ships. Reports suggest that Japan intends to convert its helicopter carriers into traditional aircraft carriers to enhance its power projection capability. Japan may introduce the electromagnetic aircraft launching system (EMALS) that was recently put into service on the U.S. Navy’s newest carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford.

Besides a strong Navy and a formidable maritime industry, Japan also has the best equipped Coast Guard in the region. Although lightly armed, it is comparable in size to any Navy in the developing world. The Coast Guard operates some 455 vessels and 74 aircraft (27 fixed wing and 46 helicopters). In 2001, the Coast Guard sank a North Korean spy ship!

As an enforcement agency, the Coast Guard forms the first line of defence at sea, as well as combating intruders, including those involved in illegal fishing activities, illegal migration and other forms of maritime security operations. More recently, Japan has also used its Coast Guard to strengthen diplomatic relations, for example, donating used vessels to the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Historically, Japan depended on the sea for its political, security and economic survival. The height of its political supremacy in the 19th Century coincided with the rise of its Imperial Navy. By the start of WW 1 Japan was recognised as a major sea power. Impressed by the American sea power, following the visit of Commodore Perry in 1853, the Japanese went to build a Navy that defeated China (1894-1895) and Russia (1904-1905).

It is no coincidence that Japan’s decline as a military power coincided with the defeat of its Imperial Navy. The destruction of Japanese sea power in WW 11 and the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima (1946) led to its defeat and American occupation of Japan.

The rest is history.

Besides modernising the JSDF, Premier Shinzo Abe has taken personal interest in reversing maritime industries decline. While Japan has a strong ship building industry, it has ceded some economic advantage to South Korea and China. By 2015, three years into his second term, the performance of maritime industries picked up. The global share of the Japanese shipbuilding industry was 29 %, overtaking China (28%) but still behind South Korea (34 %) in 2015.

In the same year, the Japanese ship building industry employed more than 125,000 people accounting for US $27 billion of sales and 90 per cent of domestic production including ship machinery. The capacity of Japan to develop marine related industries to support commercial as well as military needs is an important sea-power attribute.

To save foreign exchange, Japan relies on its shipping- lines to carry goods for exports and imports. The Japanese merchant fleet comprises more than 2,500 vessels with more than 190 million dwt in gross tonnage it carried about two per cent of the global sea-borne trade (2014) with a global share around 9.8 per cent.

Recent changes in global geo-politics, a rising China, declining American influence, North Korean missiles and President Donald Trump’s abandonment of the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement and the “green light” for Japan to develop own nuclear deterrence capabilities have provided perfect pretexts for Abe -san’s quest for a stronger Japan. However, given its past, the consequences of a remilitarised Japan on international security are more difficult to predict.