China's Strategy BA Hamzah

The above article was written almost two decades ago. Nothing much has changed in US - China relations in the South China Sea, since then. As predicted, China established a strong influence in the South China at the expense of a reluctant Pax Americana. Since 2012, China has fortified its military presence by building seven artificial islands in the Spratlys.

In July 2016, the International Tribunal under the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China’s nine dash-line and the claims to historic rights were contrary to international law. Besides, the Tribunal also found no feature in the Spratly islands can be considered as islands under UNCLOS.

The Tribunal also noted that “to the extent China had historic rights to resources in the waters of the South China Sea, such rights were extinguished...they were incompatible” with the provisos in the exclusive economic zones provided for in UNCLOS. China, which did not participate in the arbitration, refused to be bound by the award, arguing in its Position Paper as early as December 2014 and other official statements- that, in its view, the Tribunal lacks jurisdiction in the matter. 

Although the Tribunal awarded the case to Philippines, President Duterte set aside the arbitral ruling with the remark that “he would not impose anything on China”.

The rest is history.

This article was published in Far Eastern Economic Review dated 13 August 1992.