Taking a Stand on Myanmar Nareerat Wiriyapong

When leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) economies met in England earlier this month, they issued a communique that "condemns in the strongest terms the military coup in Myanmar, and the violence committed by Myanmar's security forces".

Leaders meeting face-to-face for the first time in two years also said their governments would pursue "additional measures should they prove necessary" hinting at the possibility of additional sanctions for the country has been plagued by anti-coup protests since the Feb 1 military takeover.

The US and the European Union (EU) also noted that they "intend to work together to promote a swift return to democracy in Myanmar" as leaders from both sides agreed during a summit in Brussels.

In light of those developments, it was quite disappointing that the annual meeting of Asean defence ministers on Tuesday failed to produce any statement about the continuing violence and repression in a member country.

The junta's Ministry of Foreign Affairs decried the G7 communique as based on "fabricated and biased information". Myanmar "strongly objects to the inaccurate and one-sided views regarding the situation of Myanmar", it said last Wednesday.

The statement came days after the United Nations' human rights chief said that violence was escalating and warned that the country had plunged into a "human rights catastrophe" since the generals ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi four months ago.

"There appear to be no efforts toward de-escalation but rather a buildup of troops in key areas, contrary to the commitments the military made to Asean to cease the violence," Michelle Bachelet said. She also called for a halt to the spiralling violence to avert even greater loss of life and a deepening humanitarian emergency.

Also disappointing has been China's continued support for Myanmar's army. The embassy in Yangon pointedly referred to General Min Aung Hlaing as "Myanmar's leader" after the Chinese ambassador's first meeting with the junta chief recently.

At a meeting in Chongqing on June 8, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin that China's "friendly policy toward Myanmar" remains unaffected by the domestic situation there. The minister also said Beijing would continue taking part in bilateral projects in Myanmar.

The declaration came a day after Mr Wang told Asean foreign ministers that China was willing to continue to work with Asean to jointly urge all parties in Myanmar to put the interests of the people first, and to eliminate all kinds of violence.

The continuing violence and international reaction to it is taking a huge toll on Myanmar's economy. Businesses from western democracies, and aligned countries including Japan, South Korea, and many parts of Asia, will also shun Myanmar as a result of Western sanctions on military-linked businesses. Instability could also deter investment from Chinese state-owned enterprises in the near term.

There have been many reports of foreign businesses suspending or ending projects, given the sharp negative turn in the environment. According to Fitch Solutions, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 2020-21 fiscal year ending April 30 amounted to US$1.2 billion, only 22% of the previous year's total. In April, there was no new investment at all, the Directorate of Investment and Company Administration admitted.

Maritime export value, meanwhile, fell by $1.28 billion to $4.45 billion in the period from Oct 1 to June 4, while import value fell by $3.49 billion to $7.82 billion. The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper attributed the declines to the Covid pandemic and "political changes".

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is now forecasting a 9.8% contraction in Myanmar's economy due to the political unrest and its impact on supply chains and transport. Fitch Solutions projects real GDP will contract by as much as 20% this year, before returning to 2.9% growth next year.

While Asean as a group fails to act, Beijing's regional diplomacy keeps the junta alive and in power. This puts more pressure on concerned countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand to make bold decisions.

It is time for those hoping to see a viable state in Myanmar to recognise the harsh reality and take the lead in tackling this threat. Cooperation with economic powers and concerned parties outside Asean, notably the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue comprising the US, Australia, Japan and India, could forge a robust response to the real driver of the region's instability: Myanmar's military.

This article was published in Bangkok Post dated 21 June 2021. Republished with permission from Bangkok Post.